Box Office Analysis: Fri-Sun Estimates

Well the Summer Blockbuster season has finally begun (even though Fast 5ive would argue differently), with Fox's X-Men: First Class, Warner Bros' Green Lantern, and Marvel's Captain America to follow. Marvel/Disney's Thor made an estimated $25.5 million for its Friday opening and $24M for Saturday and is expected to do about $16M on Sunday for a $66M weekend. The final total by the end of Sunday for all films is looking like $160M but still off last year's by 10% (when Iron Man 2 did $128M all by itself).

Marvel's Thor brought in younger and family friendly audiences to this latest in the Marvel Studios production which earned a 'B+' CinemaScore overall, and an 'A' for ages under 18. However, one week earlier, Fast 5ive brought in an 'A' cinemaScore overall. The movie industry was predicting a $60+ million domestic weekend opening for Marvel/Disney's Thor, and thats what they got. But you cant help thinking Marvel would have been privately expecting more.

The PG-13 Chris Hemsworth comic adaptation had already made $133M from 56 international locations so far with Finland and China opening this weekend. In the U.S. and Canada, the film debuted as the No. 3 Marvel title -- well ahead of X-Men and Fantastic Four and The Hulk, which all did around $55M, but nowhere near the $100M+ of Iron Man or Spider-Man. With week two of Universal's holdover Fast Five speeding to another strong weekend, Thor opened against stiff competition, even with $3.25M in midnight box office compared with Fast Five's $3.8M midnights for its U.S. and Canada debut. But the Norse god can take advantage of 3D's higher ticket prices, including at 214 IMAX theaters domestically and another 70 screens overseas.

Reviews have been good, and Brit director Kenneth Branagh's direction and Aussie newcomer Chris Hemsworth in the title role have proved fresh. The big task for Marvel to market was a major reversal to the norm: superhero becomes man, not the other way around. Personally, I loved it. And with no big competition next week (sorry Priest, but you arent in Thor's league), expect a good second weekend next week. By the end of tonight, Thor will have already made its budget back and be $50M plus in the black.

Meanwhile, last weeks super champ, Fast 5ive drops to second with an estimated $32.5M for the Fri-Sun weekend, bringing its American total to $142M and a worldwide gross of $300M plus. The domestic drop was primarily due to the loss of all IMAX screens and large-format screens which had only been booked for one week. But abroad Fast Five is having Universal's biggest international weekend opening of all time. It continued its international rollout with record-breaking No. 1 openings in 44 more territories this weekend for 58 total.

Friday's overseas take was $18.5M, bringing the cume to $135.2M. With a projected $85M for this weekend, the estimated international cume through Sunday could be as high as $183M. Meanwhile, Sony Tristar movie, Jumping The Broom brought in an above average $13.7M for third place. The studio was only expecting TriStar's Jumping The Broom this weekend to do somewhere between $8M to $10M on the film that was made for just $6.6M. Obviously Sony are more than happy with this. Broom received an 'A' CinemaScore straight across the board -- women, men, all ages. In fourth place is the Warner Brothers chick-flick Something Borrowed, which has done $13.2M This run-of-the-mill rom-com based on the novel by the same title earned a 'B' CinemaScore: 'B+' among females, 'C+'. Consider the totals for Broom and Borrowed to be very good and especially given the competition.

The rest of the top 10 ended up like this:
5. Rio $9.5M, Estimated Cume $116.2M
6. Water For Elephants $5.7M, Estimated Cume $41.7M
7. Madea's Big Happy Family $3.8M, Estimated Cume $46.7M
8. Prom $2.5M, Estimated Cume $7.9M
9. Hoodwinked Too $2.2M, Estimated Cume $7M
10. Soul Surfer $2.1M, Estimated Cume $36.7M

In regards to Prom and Hoodwinked Too, consider these to be big time flops. They have yet to launch overseas, and with limited publicity in foreign locations, I cant see their overall cume rising much further. And in regards to Next Week, the biggest release will be Priest 3D, expect Thor to remain at number one and possible Fast 5ive in number two. Im predicting a $25 weekend opening for Priest next week.