Weekend Box Office Analysis: July 1-4

Any question that the box office was hurting was dispelled over the Fourth of July weekend as one of the most consistent filmmakers behind summer blockbusters, Michael Bay, once again showed his box office dominance with the release of Transformers: Dark of the Moon, starring Shia LaBeouf, Rosie Huntington-Whiteley, Josh Duhamel, Tyrese Gibson, Frances McDormand, John Malkovich, Ken Jeong, Patrick Dempsey and Alan Tudyk, as it set a number of new records. The film made $97.5M over the holiday weekend and with Monday’s estimate of $18.9M the record for the four-day holiday weekend has also fallen. The previous winner was 2004’s Spider-Man 2 with it's 3 and four-day totals of $88.2M and $115.8M respectively but now the both records belongs to Dark of The Moon with it's 4-day total of $116.4M. Even more impressive is when you add in both the 3-day and four-day international totals, $217M and $235M the cumes stand at a whopping $379M and $416M.

The Michael Bay directed robot-actioneer also broke the IMAX global record with the first ever $20M-plus debut ($22.5M global). Domestically, the pic opened with some 3D-only 9pm sneak peaks on Tuesday ($5.5M), followed by a full release into 4,013 theaters on Wednesday ($37.7M) and Thursday ($21.4M). That led to an even more impressive weekend where on Friday the film brought in $32.9M, Saturday $34.5M, and Sunday $30.2M. That's still 6% behind Transformers: Revenge of The Fallen despite the higher ticket prices for 3D showings. The film should hit $181M through the Fourth of July, compared to Fallen's $214M. But 3D actually helped Dark of The Moon along in this case after Paramount heavily marketed the 3D element of Bay’s tentpole. In North America, Dark of the Moon earned 60% of its grosses from 3D theaters, debunking the recent downturn in 3D attendance. Overseas, where 3D continues to thrive in certain markets, 70% of the grosses came from 3D.

"We expected to start behind the last one," a Paramount told Deadline. "This one has an 'A' CinemaScore and better reviews, so it should play to a better multiple." Paramount now says it's the only studio to ever score 5 consecutive $100+M films in a row. Overseas, Dark of the Moon grossed $217M through Sunday which is Paramount’s best international launch ever, and 55% ahead of Revenge of the Fallen. International Monday numbers aren't available at the moment, but once they come in, Dark of the Moon's total haul will come in around and $410M but without them, the pic’s global cume is $398.1M. Already, Dark of the Moon boasts the third best global launch of all time and scored the biggest opening as well in seven countries, led by Korea at $28 million, and followed by Hong Kong, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, Singapore and Peru.

All in all this was a very impressive week for Paramount's TF3 becoming Hollywood's third highest grossing worldwide debut ever with $416M global cume for its first 7 days.

The same can't be said for the Tom Hanks-Julia Roberts starrer Larry Crowne, which opened to a soft $13M three-day weekend and $16M four-day holiday from a wide release into 2,972 theaters. That was only good for forth place. The comedy-drama, directed by Hanks, placed No. 4, behind Dark of the Moon and holdovers Cars 2 and Bad Teacher. That's a very disappointing start for two stars who individually should be able to open a new pic to at least $20M of North American grosses for a three-day weekend and presumably more when paired. A full 71% of the audience for Larry Crowne was over the age of 50, and 93% over the age of 25. The film, receiving a B CinemaScore, is one of the oldest skewing films box office observers can remember. Universal said the film’s performance was in line with the studio’s modest expectations, and that adults will continue to turn out to see the movie in the weeks to come. With that said, this is the third movie with major stars to disappoint at the box office this summer following Ryan Reynolds in Green Lantern and Jim Carrey in Mr. Popper's Penguins.

The third new film debuting nationwide over the four-day holiday weekend was 20th Century Fox and New Regency’s tween girl pic Monte Carlo, which grossed an $9M during the four-day weekend. The Selena Gomez-starrer is performing about as expected according to the studio with an 'A' CinemaScore with 61% of those buying tickets under the age of 25. Of the audience, 82% were females.

In other box office news, Disney/Pixar's weakly-received Cars 2 brought in $30.5M in its second weekend taking second place, down 54% even including Monday, proving that audiences may be agreeing with the critics on this one. It has grossed $123M in its first ten days and it's not looking very likely to gross $200M, making it the first Pixar movie since A Bug's Life not to hit that milestone. The R-rated Cameron Diaz comedy vehicle Bad Teacher dropped only 44% from its opening weekend to the 4th of July, bringing in an estimated $17.6M, claiming third place to bring its 11-day total to $63M. Super 8 took fifth place with $9.2M over the four-day weekend, bringing its total to $110M, while Green Lantern, out one week less, has now grossed $103.7M including the $8M it grossed over the holiday weekend for seventh place.

Also Universal’s sleeper hit Bridesmaids has become the top R-rated female comedy of all time, surpassing Sex and the City this holiday weekend. The movie’s domestic cume stands at $153.7M while Sex and the City has earned $152.6M to date. Also on the record breaking front, Disney confirmed that its fourth Pirates of the Caribbean movie, On Stranger Tides, has grossed more than $1 billion worldwide since its May 20 release. Only seven films have crossed the $1 billion milestone. On Stranger Tides now becomes No. 8. The film represents the second top-grossing "Pirates" film, and will now set its target on 2006's Dead Man's Chest, which took in $1.066 billion worldwide.

This is how the Top 10 shaped out this weekend at the box office:

1. Transformers 3 (Paramount) NEW (opened Tues) [4,013 Theaters]
Tuesday $5.5M (9 PM), Wednesday $37.7M, Thursday $21.4M, Friday $32.8M, Saturday $34.4M, Sunday $30.2M, Monday $18.7M

Three-Day Weekend $97.5M, Four-Day Holiday $116.4M, Cume $181M
Three-Day International $217M, Three-Day Global Cume $379M,
Four-Day International $235M, Four-Day Global Cume $416M


2. Cars 2 (Pixar/Disney) Week 2 [4,115 Theaters]
Friday $7.8M, Saturday $9.3M, Sunday $9.4M, Monday $6M
Three-Day Weekend $26.1M (-60%), Four-Day Holiday $32M, Cume $123M


3. Bad Teacher (Sony) Week 2 [3,049 Theaters]
Friday $4.5M, Saturday $5M, Sunday $4.9M, Monday $3M
Three-Day Weekend $14.4M (-54%), Four-Day Holiday $17.6M, Cume $63M

4. Larry Crowne (Universal) NEW [2,972 Theaters]
Friday $4M, Saturday $4.9M, Sunday $4.1M, Monday $4M
Three-Day Weekend $13M, Four-Day Holiday $15.7M

5. Super 8 (Paramount) Week 4 [3,088 Theaters]
Friday $2.2M, Saturday $2.8M, Sunday $2.7M, Monday $2M
Three-Day Weekend $7.8M, Four Day Holiday $9.5M, Cume $110M

6. Monte Carlo (Fox) NEW [2,472 Theaters]
Friday $3.1M, Saturday $2.3M, Sunday $2.1M, Monday $2M
Three-Day Weekend $7.5M, Four-Day Holiday $9M

7. Green Lantern (Warner Bros) Week 3 [3,280 Theaters]
Friday $1.9M, Saturday $2.3M, Sunday $2.3M, Monday $2M
Three-Day Weekend $6.6M, Four-Day Holiday $8.3M, Cume $104M

8. Mr Popper's Penguins (Fox) Week 3 [2,861 Theaters]
Friday $1.6M, Saturday $1.8M, Sunday $2.1M, Monday $1M
Three-Day Weekend $5.4M, Four-Day Holiday $6.6M, Cume $51.6M

9. Bridesmaids (Universal) Week 8 [1,389 Theaters]
Friday $1M, Saturday $1.3M, Sunday $1.6M, Monday $1M
Three-day Weekend $3.8M, Four-Day Holiday $4.6M, Cume $154M

10. Midnight In Paris (Sony Classics) Week 7 [951 Theaters]
Friday $875K, Saturday $1.3M, Sunday $1.5M, Monday $1M
Three-Day Weekend $3.7M, Four-Day Holiday $4.7M, Cume $35M