Weekend Box Office Analysis: June 3-5

With last week's record breaking 5 Day Memorial Day weekend, it was obvious that no matter which movie(s) opened this weekend, they couldn't compare to The Hangover Part II's monstrous box office total. The only big wide release this weekend was Fox and Marvel studio's X-Men: First Class, strangely enough opening in less screens than any previous X-Men film.

Tracking over the last few months had been terrible. Fox had done a horrible job with its marketing, what with those dodgy pics being leaked early and an over-saturation of everything and anything X-Men over the last two weeks. Initially, the industry only expected this to hit $40M, but more recently Fox has targeted its core audience and got its marketing house in order which led to a surge in tracking these last 10 days. The fantastic reviews have helped out a lot as well. Looking at a 2010 VS. 2011 comparison, this week looks like another surge in profits as we should be looking at a $160M weekend which is up more than +24% from last year. Critically, X-Men has earned rave reviews from critics and the fanboys, but it only averaged a "B+" CinemaScore which would indicate the average movie fan wasn't as impressed (Fast Five earned an 'A').

First Class started off by opening with a midnight gross of $3.3M. That edged out Marvel title Thor's $3.25M midnight opening but trailed X-Men Origins: Wolverine's $5M midnight start. Wolverine's $85M opening weekend also swamped X-Men: First Class' debut -- Friday's total North American gross was $56M for the weekend. This will be the lowest opening of a Marvel-branded movie in a long time -- not to mention less than the $60M opening which Hollywood expected. Internationally, X-Men: First Class has already opened in France and Australia but broke no records and will roll out in 75 international territories this weekend. A gross of $64M is estimated to have been taken in foreign box office, beating the Hangover 2, which only managed $58M from international locations last weekend. While the industry had wanted a $60M plus opening, Fox had publicly made clear that a $53M opening would be good enough for them - it seems they got what they wanted and a bit more. However, it's important to note that First Class was only in 2D, which means that they couldn't rely on inflated 3D ticket prices like Thor did. Had X-Men been in 3D, its weekend total would have passed the $60M mark easily.

And lets also remember that several years ago a rebooted franchise featuring a certain Dark Knight opened to $47M, that was Batman Begins, which led to strong word of mouth which gave it a solid worldwide total and then onto a record breaking sequel. Can history repeat itself? I'm still willing to bet a sequel is greenlit soon. And the road ahead looks good for the Matthew Vaughn directed film, with Super 8 being the main competition next weekend. Tracking for the J.J. Abrams directed film has been all over the place with many people having heard of it but really not knowing what its about. This could bode well for the mutant reboot on its way to a very solid second weekend. All in all, this is a good opening weekend for a potentially new franchise. This is how X-Men looked over the weekend: Friday $23M, Saturday $22.9M, Weekend estimated $54M.

In second place was The Hangover Part II and after its huge 5 day total of just under $140M last weekend, the comedy also did well on Tuesday-Thursday. Its weekend went as follows: Friday $10.5M, Saturday $13.5M, Weekend $32.4M (-61%), Estimated Cume $188M. Considering the success of this second movie, it's not any suprise a third movie is in the works. While none of the major players have signed on, it would be madness if they didn't. In third this week was the Dreamworks animated sequel, Kung Fu Panda 2 3D. Down a respectful 47% from last weekend, the Jack Black voiced comedy took in an estimated $25M over the weekend. Interestingly though, a number of Wall Street investors suggested a "sell" should be applied to Dreamworks stock as they believed Panda under-performed and that the 3D revolution in fact wont happen.

In fourth this weekend was Disneys Pirates Of The Caribbean: On Stranger Tides. Its weekend went like this: Friday $5M, Saturday $7.9M, Weekend $19M, Cume $191.2M. The fourquel is heading to $240M domestic and has crossed $700M globally, making this Disney's 6th title internationally to cross the $500M mark. It will also conclude its Box Office business as the most successful Pirates movie, making a fifth and sixth movie in the series a dead cert. Universal's Bridesmaids, in its fourth week took in an estimated $12.5M this weekend bringing its total to $107M. Given that industry big wigs never saw this crossing the $50M line, the female centred comedy has more than doubled expectations and hasn't opened in many international locations yet. Expect a final $200M worldwide total and look for a sequel in 2013.

The rest of the top 10 looks like this:
6. Thor Friday $1.3M, Saturday $1.8M, Weekend $4.2M, Cume $169.1M (while I think the $200M mark is out of reach, a $180M domestic total is likely)
7. Fast Five Friday $975K, Saturday $1.4M, Weekend $3.2M Cume $202.1M
8. Midnight In Paris Friday $700K, Saturday $1.2M, Weekend $2.8M, Cume $6.8M
9. Something Borrowed Friday $250K, Saturday $475K, Weekend $865K Cume $36.8M
10. Jumping The Broom Friday $240K, Saturday $330K, Weekend $835K Cume $35.8M