Box Office Analysis January 2011 - April 30th 2011

The North American Box Office rang in 2011 with films such as Little Fockers, Tangled, Tron Legacy and The Fighter in the Top Ten, all of which you could argue were a commercial success in one way or another. However, the phrase "commercial success" is one that has not been used too widely so far in 2011. In fact, the terms we hear more of these days, are "flop" and "under-achieved". That has so far been the story of the 2011 North American Box Office.

The first full week of 2011 did quite well actually, with good holds for True Grit and Little Fockers, both of which had just crossed the $100 million mark. The new entry that week was the Nicolas Cage medieval drama, Season of the Witch, which came in at $10.6 million, a solid total given the fact the studio had no faith in the movie and it had its release date changed numerous times. So far, not so bad. However....


The big hitter of January was expected to be Green Hornet 3D, critics had been quite polite to the Seth Rogan starrer, however, after the 4 day weekend numbers were in, the superhero flick barely scraped the $40 million mark, a below average total considering that figure is for the four days, not the normal three. The other big release was the Vince Vaughn comedy, The Dilemma. This has been widely expected to hit the $30 million mark, but could only bring in $20.5million. So far, these two movies under-achieved. As the weeks went on, both movies quickly dropped out of the Top 10. Green Hornet, luckily for Sony, had a very good International bow, and has so far racked up $250 million worldwide , still though, leaving a sequel in doubt.

The remainder of January was populated by Oscar nominees (Black Swan, The King's Speech and The Fighter) and by a couple of critically savaged movies, The Rite and The Mechanic. Neither of them managing to hit $15 million opening weekend. I will however give credit to The Mechanic, it came from CBS Films and they were only expecting a $9-10 million bow, when in fact it ended the weekend on $11.4 million. But still, nothing special. Now lets bear in mind, January wasnt a complete disaster, BUT when you compare it to January 2010, there is no matching Avatar - which was well on its way to crossing the $1 billion worldwide mark. The year to year comparison so far does not look good for January. And there was worse to come.

In the first week of February , 2010 v 2011 box office numbers were horrible, with 2011 being 25% down. The Rite and The Mechanic both lost about 60% of their week two numbers and the two new releases that first February weekend, The Roommate and Sanctum 3D, both under-perfomed. Especially Sanctum, even using the James Cameron name couldnt saves this clunker. Sanctum 3D brought in $9.4 million , and considering it had inflated 3D ticket prices , this was seen as an even bigger flop. 

Similar to Green Hornet expectations, the biggie of mid-February was expected to be the sci-fi actioner, I am Number Four, which was expected to become a franchise. However, the best that could manage was a third place finish ($22.8), and came in behind a bunch of talking Gnomes and a 50 year old action man in Liam Neeson in his similar-to-Taken, Unknown. While Unknown opened in line with expectations, Gnomeo and Juliet was the first big suprise of the year, beating tracking by as much as 50% , bringing in $25.4 million. Were things starting to look up...just a little bit ?

Well, the short answer is NO. February closed with two of the biggest losers of the year so far. Hall Pass, which was supposed to be Owen Wilson's big comeback comedy movie, tanked, only being able to deliver $13.5million, this was about 25% below studio expectations. The other loser that weekend, was once again Nic Cage. Drive Angry 3D had been expected to attract the hardcore Nic Cage fans, it turned out not many people are fans of his anymore, based on the results anyway. The film went down as the worst 3D opening of all time and could only muster $5.2 million, only good enough for 9th place that weekend. All in all, given the hype, February was a massive disappointment. How would March look ?

The first week of March, on paper, looked strong. Rango was supposed to be 2011's Alice in Wonderland, opening on the same weekend and starring Johnny Depp but could Rango match the huge Alice debut from one year earlier? Once again, the short answer was NO. Rango could only muster $38.1 million, yes, that was the biggest bow of 2011 so far, but nowhere near the $100 million plus that Alice managed the same time in 2010. The other wide release that weekend was Matt Damon's The Adjustment Bureau. Now tracking for this was all over the place, it was a movie that wasn't that well advertised and didnt seem to capture peoples imagination. The opening weekend was okay, but nothing special. $21.2 million. So far, March was a massive let down compred to March 2010. The only positive point to mention here is Beastly, a CBS films production, which had already made a profit based on international sales, before the opening weekend. That brought in $10.1 opening weekend, slightly higher than studio and critic expections.

Next up was a big loud sci-fi movie in Battle: LA , a dark fairytale and a big budget Disney movie. Could this be the best weekend so far for the box office? Once again the answer is NO! In fact, it was a disatser for two of those three anyway. While Battle: LA opened right where it was supposed to and brought in the target demographics it was perceived to have, Red Riding Hood and Mars Needs Moms both opened spectacularly poor. Red Riding Hood was billed as the new Twilight, but after the weekend it only managed $14 million, not bad considering the low budget, but a disaster compared to what studio was hoping for. The third release here, Mars Needs Moms, may in fact finish being the biggest flop of 2011. With a reported budget of $150 million , the Robert Zemeckis directed kids flick only brought Disney $6.9 million, and considering it had the added 3D charge on top of the ticket prices, this really was a FLOP of the biggest kind. 
So far March has been one big let down. And the 2010 vs 2011 gap was getting even wider.


March ended on quite a low note. A slew of wide releases, while gainig critical acclaim and average size weekend openings, could not set the box office on fire. Limitless, The Lincoln Lawyer and Sucker Punch all opened below the $20 million mark. While Limitless and Lawyer ended up having fantastic staying power (word of mouth does work), Sucker Punch was yet ANOTHER under-achiever. Not only was this movie expected to hit the $30 million mark, it got beat by a Wimpy Kid. All in all , March , like January and February , ended depressingly. Please, please let April bring some big hitters. Can April be the uplifting month we are all hoping for?


April began very well. Hop opened April with a very nice $37.5 million, only slightly lower than Rango's $38.1. This opening was suprisingly high and above tracking. Score one for April  Things that weekend got even better when Insidious opened. A $13.3 million bow was right where it should have been. Considering how many movies have under-performed, it was good to see a horror movie opening on target. But then Source Code made it's debut and brought the weekend back down to Earth. This was supposed to be Jake Gyllenhaal's big solo outing, proving he could open a 'big' movie. Well, a $14.8 million total proved that in fact -- he cant. This was a very dissapointing opening and once again depressed the overall box office.

April's second weekend was just crazy stupid. Having several wide releases, we saw one or two over-perform and a few under-perform. While Hanna and Soul Surfer did quite well, Arthur and Your Highness were the big let down's and in fact , the low numbers of those movies allowed Hop to be the first film in 2011 to spend two weekends in a row at #1. Once again , things could and should have been alot better. Could the end of April releases brighten things up finally? Well, the answer is yes and NO.

There were high hopes in the third week of April for Rio and Scream 4. Could an animated bird called Blue and a return of the Scream franchise turn the fortunes of the box office around and act as a springboard going into the summer blockbuster season? Well things went better than expected for the little blue bird ($40 million - and highest opening of 2011), but was a bit of a disaster for Scream 4. While many had predicted Scream 4 to be in the $30-40 million range, it could only bring in $19 million. It would seem the only people who turned out for this third sequel were the cult fans who remember fondly seeing the first three. And with slashers normally losing about 50% of their opening weekend, look for Scream 4 to be the worst performing of the lot (luckily, so far, international numbers have been good).

So. Thats it. The story of the box office so far in 2011 in North America. Depressed, flop, under-achieving and not performing. All terms that spring to mind. Yes, a few did record better than expected numbers, but they were low budget movies that were never expected to do much business. So with all that, how does the future look? With Thor opeing soon, this will be the real test. If Thor opens below expectations, we are in for a very curious year. And given the early figures from Australia, where Fast 5ive crushed Thor, should the box office market place in general start to worry? Stay tuned...