Weekend Box Office Analysis: July 29-31

Would you look at this! We have a tie at this weekend's box office! In one of the biggest box office upsets in recent memory, Sony’s kids pic The Smurfs tied with DreamWorks/Universal’s Cowboys & Aliens for No. 1, with each pic claiming a $36.2M opening. The winner won’t be decided until Monday morning.

Heading into the weekend, Cowboys held a wide lead over the competition, according to tracking. Universal itself believed the movie, directed by Jon Favreau, would open in the $40M to $45M range. It fell well short of that! "Cowboys & Aliens did not get any late night young male business  -- hence the reason Universal's estimates were so far off," a rival studio exec explained. $36M isn't bad but the problem is that the budget has been pegged by insiders at a low of $163M (because of filming rebates) and a high of $200M. Awareness had been strong for the title and interest had been best with older males. But tracking had been lagging especially with women of all ages until last Thursday when it popped up. Cowboys, which received a B CinemaScore, couldn't have better pedigree with Stacey Snider and Steven Spielberg’s DreamWorks overseeing production. But this weekend's exit polls showed the audience was 53% male vs. 47% female, with 63% of moviegoers age 30 years and older vs. 37% who were under age 30.

Meanwhile, Hollywood never expected Smurfs to have such a phenomenal weekend except Sony. "The studio has always had confidence in the franchise," an exec said. Exit polls showed that 35% of this weekend's audience was general moviegoers while 65% was kids with parents. Of the family sample, 40% were parents of children under age 12 and 25% were children under 12. Coming into the weekend, the family film was only expected to open in the $25M to $30M range. Sony believes Smurfs will have strong legs throughout August. The movie also is off to a strong start overseas, where it opened in Spain this weekend.

In third place for the weekend is Disney/Marvel's latest superhero flick Captain America: The First Avenger  which took in $24,9M. That makes for a domestic total of $116.7M which is slightly behind that of Thor which took in $119.5M by this time. Paramount is gleeful over its 6th consecutive release over $100M in the U.S., claiming no studio has ever had more than 4. In forth place is massively successful Harry Potter and The Deathly Hallows Part 2 which took in another $21.9M to bring it's domestic total to $318.4M.

The weekend’s third new offering, Warner Bros. Steve Carell-Ryan Gosling comedy Crazy, Stupid, Love opened to $19.3M to finish in fifth place. Better reviewed than most, Crazy, Stupid, Love should have "a large multiple and legs," according to the studio, adding, "Watch for excellent mid-week business as well." The better-than-average casting of Gosling, Emma Stone, Carell and Julianne Moore signaled this just wasn't your usual run-of-the-mill rom-com and the marketing smartly played off that. "We sought to highlight the films originality, and position it as a funny and deeply felt and refreshing look at how relationships make people crazy," a Warner Bros said.

This is how the entire top 10 shakes out:

1. Cowboys & Aliens (DreamWorks/Universal) NEW [3,750 Runs]
Friday $12.9M, Saturday $13M, Sunday $10.1M, Estimated Weekend $36.2M

1. The Smurfs - 3D (Sony) NEW [3,395 Runs]
Friday $13.4M, Saturday $12.7M, Sunday $10.1M, Estimated Weekend $36.2M

3. Captain America - 3D (Marvel/Disney/Paramount) Week 2 [3,715 Runs]
Friday $7.8M, Saturday $9.9M, Sunday $7.1M, Weekend $24.9M (-62%), Estimated Cume $116.7M

4. Harry Potter/Hallows Pt 2 - 3D (Warner Bros) Week 3 [4,145 Runs]
Friday $6.6M, Saturday $8.5M, Sunday $6.8M, Weekend $21.9M, Cume $318.4M

5. Crazy, Stupid, Love (Warner Bros) NEW [3,020 Runs]
Friday $7M, Saturday $7M, Sunday $5.6M Weekend $19.3M

6. Friends With Benefits (Screen Gems/Sony) Week 2 [2,926 Runs]
Friday $3.2M, Saturday $3.4M, Sunday $2.6M, Weekend $9.3M (-48%), Cume $38.2M

7. Horrible Bosses (New Line/Warner Bros) Week 4 [2,510 Runs]
Friday $2.2M, Saturday $2.8M, Sunday $2M, Weekend $7.1M, Cume $96.2M

8. Transformers: Dark of The Moon - 3D (Paramount) Week 5 [2,604 Runs]
Friday $1.7M, Saturday $2.3M, Sunday $1.7M, Weekend $5.9M, Estimated Cume $337.8M

9. Zookeeper (Sony) Week 4 [2,418 Runs]
Friday $1.3M, Saturday $1.6M, Sunday $1.1M, Weekend $4.2M, Estimated Cume $68.7M

10. Cars 2 - 3D (Pixar/Disney) Week 6 [1,763 Runs]
Friday $671K, Saturday $921K, Sunday $701K, Weekend $2.3M, Estimated Cume $182M