Weekend Box Office Analysis: May 20-22

So no surprises here! Pirates Of The Caribbean: On Stranger Tides roared to the top of the U.S. domestic Box Office bringing in $90M this weekend. Considering this was the only new wide release, competition was slim. Heading into this weekend Disney and most industry writers had forecast a $100M plus opening. And given the lack of competition and the higher 3D ticket prices, this really should have met those expectations and opened higher than Pirates 3. But what happened didn't go according to plan. "On Stranger Tides" opened with only $35M Friday and $32M on Saturday from 4,155 theaters most of those being in IMAX. While this is easily the biggest opening of the year, Disney will no doubt be asking questions as to why Pirates 4 never cracked the $100M mark.

Nevertheless there was still reason to celebrate for other reasons because the action pic made it up overseas where sequels still rule and 3D is still king. It finished the weekend with the #1 biggest 5-day international opening with $256.3M (beating Harry Potter 6's $236M) and the #4 biggest global opening of all time with $346.4M (behind Harry Potter 6, Spidey 3, and Pirates 3). Early reports are suggesting that 3D take-up was under expectations which gives the impression the 3D bubble is close to bursting already. And as a comparison, Pirates 3 managed $114M in 2007 for the first 3 days of the Memorial long weekend. Pirates 4 cost in the neighborhood of $250 million to make and another $170M to market worldwide. But a derivative and lackluster promotional campaign didn't help. However, CinemaScore was a B, indicating moviegoers liked the movie, but didnt love it. But with a $350M plus total already in the bag, Disney are confident that this one will overtake the total for Pirates 3. Who knows, but given the tough road ahead, my guess would be not.

In second place this weekend is week two of Universal's female-heavy comedy Bridesmaids. After a better than expected first week which really did shock the industry, would the movie simply crash and burn in week two? The answer was a resounding No! Dropping only 20%, the R rated comedy is expected to bring in $21M for the weekend and an overall total of $59.5M altogether, which is twice as much as the studio was expecting. And with many international locations still to open in, this could turn into the suprise hit of 2011, similar to the way The Hangover went a few years back.

In third place was the diposed God of Thunder, Thor. Dropping from first to third, the Marvel actioneer dropped a good 55% bringing in roughly $15.4M for the weekend, and is now just under the $150M mark domestically, but is close to the $400M mark at the worldwide box office. Questions still remain though if Thor can muscle past the $200M mark domestically. Universal's Fast Five moved down to fourth, now in its fourth week of release, the Furious sequel is expected to do $10.6M this weekend, bringing its North American box office total to $186M, on course to break down the $200M barrier and should pass the half a billion dollar mark by Monday worldwide - a huge achievement.

The rest of the top 10 look like this:

5. Rio 3D Weekend $4.6M, Cume $131.6M
6. Priest 3D Weekend $4.6M (-69%), Cume $23.7M
7. Jumping The Broom Weekend $3.7M, Cume $31.3M
8. Something Borrowed Weekend $3.4M, Cume $31.4M
9. Water For Elephants Weekend $2.1M, Cume $52.4M
10. Madea's Big Happy Family Weekend $1, Cume $51.7M.

So as a final thought. A few things to take from this: 3D does not equel massive earnings. Pirates 3 was only in 2D and that brought in about $25M more than Pirates 4. This is an issue the studios should be looking at. Also the worldwide box office is now starting to become just as important as the US domestic box office. No longer can a film be classed as a success or failure based on U.S. opening weekends alone. Pirates 4 opening higher worldwide is a prime example. Look for the international box office to feature heavily for the rest of this blockbuster season.